What’s Next for TikTok: Ban, Sell, or Presidential Reprieve?

Last Friday, U.S. federal judges on the D.C. circuit upheld an April bill banning TikTok unless the parent company, ByteDance, divests its U.S. operations. The judges determined that the U.S. government presented sufficient arguments for national security, and that the ban does not violate First Amendment free speech protections or Fifth Amendment equal protection guarantees. “The government acted solely to protect that freedom from a foreign adversary nation and to limit that adversary’s ability to gather data on people in the United States,” wrote the three judges.

Speculation has ensued about what comes next for TikTok. The law requires the sale of TikTok to an American buyer and bids have been organized by American investors, including former Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and real-estate mogul Frank McCourt. TikTok’s owner ByteDance does not want to sell, and the PRC Commerce Ministry has said it will “firmly oppose” efforts to force the sale. China upgraded its export control laws in 2020 to allow it to block the sale of Chinese technology to an American buyer.

In the short term, all eyes are on the Supreme Court to see if they will take the case. This weekend, Caixin insiders reported that TikTok CEO Shou Zi Chew emailed employees stating clearly that the company will appeal the ruling to the Supreme Court. On Friday, the company released a public statement on the decision, calling the ban “outright censorship of the American people” and stating hope that the Supreme Court will follow its tradition of protecting First Amendment rights. TikTok filed an emergency motion with the US Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia on Monday asking for a temporary block of the law.

The Court is under no obligation to take the case, and if a decision is issued prior to the ban going into effect on January 19, 2025, the turnaround would be a remarkable timeline for the Court. Though President-elect Trump signed an August 2020 executive order attempting to ban TikTok, he has more recently reversed his opinion, calling on Americans to vote for him to “save TikTok,” regularly posting on the platform, and posting his TikTok statistics on TruthSocial on Thursday. Many of his cabinet picks have previously made public statements highlighting national security concerns surrounding TikTok. But in March, Trump met with Republican donor Jeff Yass, whose investment firm owns roughly 15 percent of ByteDance, subsequently stating that banning TikTok would only benefit Facebook. If he wants to save TikTok, President Trump would probably have to ask Congress to repeal the ban. He could also tell the Department of Justice not to enforce the law and signal to Apple and Google that they would not be prosecuted for continuing to offer the app in their online stores.

In the weekend following the ruling, reactions in the Chinese press and social media focused on the facts and consequences of the ruling, with netizens speculating on future moves by President-elect Trump and the Supreme Court. The official government press has remained quite muted and has not released anything that indicates that official policy has shifted to a position more sympathetic to a TikTok sale.

The Chinese response is likely to remain restrained while they wait to see what trade actions the incoming administration takes. TikTok has never been as high a political concern as Huawei and other Chinese firms working on semiconductors or other critical technologies. Since Meta, X, and other American social media platforms have long been blocked in China, Beijing does not have an obvious target for a tit-for-tat response. Beijing is unlikely to respond with additional bans on critical minerals or measures directed at American high-tech firms, such as the antitrust investigation into AI-chip powerhouse Nvidia announced this week. For now, Chinese officials are probably happy to highlight what they see as American hypocrisy: the U.S. government limiting the free speech of TikTok users for specious national security concerns. Following the initial passage of the bill in March, Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said that the bill violates principles of fair competition and international trade, calling it “robber baron logic.” “U.S. handling of the TikTok incident will allow the world to see more clearly whether the so-called rules-based order really benefits the world or serves only the U.S.”

TikTok’s fate may rest on some grand bargain that involves a range of the tariff and tech issues roiling the bilateral relationship. If such a deal were to come to fruition, China might push for a non-American buyer. Selling to an American subsidiary of a multinational company, such as Japanese giants Rakuten or Shopify, would allow TikTok to continue operations and Beijing to save face. Incoming national security adviser Mike Waltz told Fox Business Network Friday that Trump "wants to save TikTok. We absolutely need to allow the American people to have access to that app but we have to protect our data as well."

If TikTok is banned in the United States, public outcry and renewed dissent from free speech organizations will follow. The developments will be part of the continued power struggle between the U.S. and China in the coming administration and will play a role in the persuasiveness of the competing global reputations and political narratives of the United States and China about technology development.